Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?
By Derek Moore
Show Summary:
Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?
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Topics Include:
- Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy
- Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data
- MicroStrategy implied volatility
- S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates
- Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future
- Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index
- Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500
- Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield
- Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed
- How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates
- WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move?
- Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers
Charts Discussed in This Episode
Source: JP Morgan Guide to the Markets
Source : Carson
Source : Visual Capitalist
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Mentioned in this Episode
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart
Contact Derek
Last Week’s Episode:
Markets Getting Overvalued? | MicroStrategy Convertible Bonds| 1st Year Presidential Cycle | 2025 Year End S&P 500 Targets Lazy?| MicroStrategy Option Volatility
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